Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
Last week’s wild price action was a case in point for the wisdom of using a systematic “easy versus difficult“ market filter.
Difficult markets are filled with traps, whipsaws, failed setups, and so on.
The Monday after a crash into monthly OpEx has a very decent probability to form a short-term bottom, as options positions that exacerbated the downward spiral have now expired.
However, the demand in the current environment is not reliable, and the chance for failure remains high.