Probability Map May 16

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Market Playbook Reassessment and Lessons Learned

The S&P 500 has broken through key support and simultaneously the Meta Strategy model’s stop loss was triggered.

The trajectory of the real economy will now define the course of the stock market.

So far, nearly all of my model’s leading economic indicators remain solidly green.

Will inflation, the FED rate hike cycle, geopolitical trouble, China’s supply chain chaos, and so on topple economic growth or will the economy prove to be resilient?

This will determine whether we are in a non-recessionary bear market (or correction) that tends to be shallow and short, or whether we will tip into a recession, when bear markets are usually long and deep.

I also pose the question: What type of trader am I, and how can I use this insight to improve?

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