Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Bull / Bear Watershed

For the first time in a long while, we are facing a watershed moment, teetering at the edge of a regime change from a Bull Market to a Bear Market.

Looking out over the next week, the most likely time for stock markets to fall apart is now, as option-based tailwinds for the S&P are fading.

Virtually all weeks going into monthly OpEx have shown very weak returns over the last year, and the big quarterly March expiration has often marked a decisive market extreme in the past.

It is time for me to move to the sidelines and wait for the next opportunity after OpEx week has passed.