Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
— Thursday update: New trade setup levels —
— Wednesday update: New trading setup active —
A sharp sell-off during the low-liquidity environment of Black Friday led to one of the sharpest VIX spikes in history.
Analyzing the catalysts, I come to the conclusion that we may soon see a post-panic volatility crush that sets up a year-end rally.
As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.