Probability Map October 11

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

— Friday Update —

We are entering one of those rare periods, when all quantitative studies start to align with the basic tendency for stock prices to go up.

A 5-week consolidation has flushed out the negative indications that have persisted throughout the entire year, while the news provides a plethora of worries for the market to overcome.

A perfect setup for positive returns over 2 – 6 months.

Mr. Market may take issue with this simple view, and the current consolidation period can easily stretch on for longer, or flush out weak buyers with vicious price drops to new lows.

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.

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