Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

When the soldiers are in retreat, the entire burden to keep the market up rests on the generals’ shoulders.

The one stock that rules them all, Amazon, broke down after last Thursday’s earnings numbers.

Often weak breadth starts to matter, when leadership momentum begins to wane…

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.