Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Pullback Update — Tuesday & Wednesday pre-market

Could the next trading weeks really be encapsulated by this simple formula?

OpEx vulnerability + broken support + weak market internals + positioning & sentiment extremes + tapering = significant downside

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.