Probability Map May 10

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

— Updated Tables May 13, pre-market —
— Important Update May 12, pre-market —

For months now, clusters of warning signals have led to only minor pullbacks before equities resumed their relentless rally. The signs were quite effective in pinpointing short-term market tops, but liquidity driven momentum ultimately resumed its place as the stronger force very quickly.

When this changes, it likely does so very suddenly, and signs still point to a larger correction with an increased probability to occur in May/June.

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.

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