Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Multiple red flags warning of an imminent stock market decline were quite accurate, but, despite going through a vulnerable post-OpEx time window, the pullback remains very shallow.

A strong “buy-the-dip mentality” is still the prevalent force for now. 

Last week ended where it started, and we face a handful of different scenarios for the market’s short-term development.

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.