Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

— Updated Tables April 15, pre-market —

The current rally is accelerating, and several red flags are popping up in an overbought market.

These conditions will probably lead to weakness within the next two weeks, and the key area to watch is the first strong support level around the zero gamma / 20 dma.

This area could very well hold through April and is more prone to breaking down in May. 

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.