Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

— Updated April 6, pre-market —

My main upside target area was reached last week and half of the derivatives position was closed at a healthy profit.

The S&P 500 has run up into positive gamma territory, which dampens volatility and makes a mean-reverting consolidation increasingly likely. 

Current market studies add up to a largely neutral picture, and the default expectation is a continuation of the current slow grind up with frequent pullbacks.

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.