Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
A normalization of excessive speculation and sentiment is the highest probability scenario going forward, as a changing narrative (rising bond yields matter) puts increasing pressure on the stock market.
To be able to flush out the excess, we would need to see a prolonged correction or sideways consolidation over the next month or two.
As corrections often follow similar patterns, I lay out a detailed trading plan in this week’s report.
As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.