Probability Map March 1

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

A normalization of excessive speculation and sentiment is the highest probability scenario going forward, as a changing narrative (rising bond yields matter) puts increasing pressure on the stock market.

To be able to flush out the excess, we would need to see a prolonged correction or sideways consolidation over the next month or two.

As corrections often follow similar patterns, I lay out a detailed trading plan in this week’s report.

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.

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