Probability Map January 4

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

— Updated January 7, pre-market —
— Updated January 5, pre-market —

The struggle of opposing market forces is beginning to shift, as positive turn-of-year flows will soon start to wane.

I expect that we will see a larger correction in the beginning of the year, but current momentum may surprise us with another push higher before that.

However, any gains we see over the next weeks are very likely to be given back over the coming months.

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.

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