Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

In today’s report: last week’s stock market rout analyzed through the lens of volatility, breadth, seasonality and more.

After breaking significant resistance levels we reduced the model portfolio’s level of leverage to reasses the situation.

US elections are front and center this week. Forecasts paint a clear picture in favor for Joe Biden, but the senate result will likely be more important for the stock market.

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.