Probability Map October 19th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Today’s report sees increased short-term uncertainty after Friday’s Opex at the tail end of the current correction in equities.

After closing above the last significant resistance below the S&P 500 all-time-high early last week, the model portfolio is now long near its maximum level of leverage.

We began to build high conviction long positions over the past three weeks and continue to hold during a short-term pullback preceded by significant breadth & strength.

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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