Meta Strategy Trading Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

– Positioning Update Thursday –

Positive TOY Models

The S&P 500 ended January in the green, which adds the final piece to the January Trifecta, one of the major turn-of-the-year forecasting models.

Such a moderately positive start to the year has historically been followed by gains over the rest of the year the vast majority of the time.

This jibes with the positive data in my 2026 outlook and softens the expectation of a rocky period ahead of the midterms somewhat.

However, with a new FED chair at the reigns, I still anticipate a major drawdown in Q3 as the market has a tendency to quickly test his resolve.