The stock market is mired in a mild consolidation period, going nowhere for over two months, which I would characterize as a correction in time.

Looked at from a short-term perspective, such consolidations can be quite scary, because they are defined by wide, volatile swings – with large gaps and sudden rug pulls caused by exaggerated news.

The best way to deal with this news-driven noise is to ignore the short-term and look out over longer time horizons.

A closer look underneath the hood of the current consolidation supports the view that moderate to average positive returns are the highest probability outcome for 2025 based on current data:

Elevated growth expectations that are hard to beat dampen the outlook, but improving market breadth conditions, both within U.S. markets as well as internationally, show a positive impulse.