Meta Strategy Trading Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Nividia Saves The Day

The S&P500 continues to trade rather erratically with wide opening gaps in either direction on most days.

This is neither a very healthy sign, nor is it easy to trade.

It speaks to underlying uncertainty, which leads to short-term overreactions to news without follow-through – it’s a step-back-and-observe kind of market.

My directional conviction is low, with short-term probabilities hovering just below the 50 / 50 mark, but the warning signs over the last weeks cause a bias to the short side.

Mean-reversion currently has an increasing chance to take over from extreme momentum.