Meta Strategy Trading Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Deceptively Calm?

A quiet holiday week was not unsurprising after a 10% rally within three weeks – a very short time frame for an average annual S&P500 return!

We saw a tremendous collapse of the Vix below 13, where its historic lower bound is situated, but, contrary to widespread opinion, I do not expect an immediate snap-back to significantly higher Vix levels.

One of the most reliable features of stock markets over time is that low volatility tends to cluster – often for significant amounts of time.

However, a temporary stock market dip over the short term would be normal and healthy to reset over-bought conditions.