Meta Strategy Trading Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
Nividia Saves The Day
The S&P500 continues to trade rather erratically with wide opening gaps in either direction on most days.
This is neither a very healthy sign, nor is it easy to trade.
It speaks to underlying uncertainty, which leads to short-term overreactions to news without follow-through – it’s a step-back-and-observe kind of market.
My directional conviction is low, with short-term probabilities hovering just below the 50 / 50 mark, but the warning signs over the last weeks cause a bias to the short side.
Mean-reversion currently has an increasing chance to take over from extreme momentum.
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