Meta Strategy Trading Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
Vibes of 2017 (revised)
The relentless, slow-motion grind-up in the S&P 500 awakens memories of the historic volatility compression regime of 2017.
The S&P 500 went straight up without a pullback larger than 3% to gain nearly 40%.
Market strength in the face of seasonal weakness increases the probability that we are transitioning straight into a melt-up rally.
Upside volatility is more pronounced currently than in 2017 and a new historic outlier is the smooth transition from a recovery pop into an increasingly more sustainable, shallower rally trajectory after a V-shaped correction.
Also, the current volatility dynamic is already beginning to change: Vol-up / Market-up is becoming a persistent feature of the current market.
This indicates rising fragility with an increased probability of higher bi-directional volatility to come.
For Q4 of 2025 momentum studies still point to strength with as close to a perfect record as market studies can have.
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