Meta Strategy Trading Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
– Positioning Update Thursday –
Re-calibrating my stock-market outlook for the second half of 2025.
My favored scenario takes the tumultuous first half of the year into account to narrow down on the most probable path for equities for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026.
The defining setup for my H2 outlook is the recently-completed, V-shaped recovery following a deep correction down to the edge of bear-market territory.
From a panic-crash stocks rallied in one of he fastest recoveries in market history triggering positive breadth thrust signals and finally entering a strong momentum environment.
A fresh Quiet Bull Market is very positive overall and points to positive one-year forward returns.
The handful of historical parallels feature striking similarities: All of them continued in a multi-year, low-volatility uptrend, after initially re-calibrating their steep trajectory to a shallower, sustainable rally via a lengthy sideways-consolidation.
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