The final month of another blockbuster year for the stock market has begun in typical 2024 fashion: The S&P 500 rallies quietly with hardly a pause.
We are right in the middle of the seasonally best six-month period and strong structural flows will make it hard for stocks to escape the upward push into January, even if we should experience some mid-December weakness.
At some point in 2025, we can expect to see mean-reversion of such strong momentum.
Year three of a bull market typically delivers more subdued returns.
However, once a bull market has come this far it usually continues after a pause, as long as the specter of a recession can be avoided.
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