Meta Strategy Trading Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
Rotation in Nowhere Land
On an index level stocks are going trough a consolidation in time, while price is mired in a tight range.
Underneath the surface of the overall market this is characterized by a rotation into new sectors: Primarily commodities and infrastructure.
I interpret this as a cautious market re-shuffling, which increases the chances for a resurgence in inflation with negative impact on current rate-cut expectations.
However, macro interpretations are easily overwhelmed by other factors in the ongoing tug of war between momentum and mean-reversion – there currently is no clear edge either way.
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