Meta Strategy Trading Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
Risk Neutral
52 years ago, was the last time we saw runaway momentum in the S&P 500 similar to today, with 14 positive weeks out of the last 15 – incidentally rallying about 22.5% both times.
Looking at stocks in 1972 two things stand out, which are typical for strong momentum environments: The rally eventually exhausts itself and consolidates, and momentum carries on afterwards.
Current market studies reveal an increasing amount of short-term alerts indicating that we are getting close to the end of an unbridled rally phase.
The number of technical signals pointing to deterioration beneath the surface, while stock indices continue to make new highs is mounting.
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