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Weekly probability maps for future stock returns are accessible for premium members and updated every Monday.

The Meta Strategy ETF Portfolio monthly newsletter for basic and premium members.

Strategy rules are accessible for basic and premium members – several basic strategies are open to everyone.

Recent Reports

Probability Map November 30th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Strong breadth versus sentiment:
These are the big counterpoints in the current market. Signs of exuberance are on the rise, but the key question remains; How long can that rise continue, and when will it flip?

Growing confidence is typical for a euphoric bull market, and strength underneath the hood lends long-term support.

The art now lies in striking the right balance in interpreting the data: When will growing sentiment likely cease to be supportive of rising prices, making the market fragile and prone to flushing out its excesses?

As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium and long term.

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Probability Map November 23rd

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

A new probability dashboard makes the most important analysis results visible at a single glance.

Current moderate stock market weakness gives a good entry opportunity for my primary scenario: a year-end rally.

Caution is warranted, however, as a failure of such a scenario often leads to a large drop in equity prices.

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium and long term.

Probability Map November 16th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Today’s report looks at how positive vaccine news may enable the market to look beyond the current catastrophic state of the pandemic – pricing in the likely state of the world six months from now.

A strong rally is slowly increasing short-term chances for a pullback. We decrease the model portfolio’s level of leverage with rising prices, taking excellent profits along the way.

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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Probability Map November 9th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Today’s report digs into the mechanical nature of last week’s relentless stock market rally. We try to fathom how long it may last and look at the chances of seeing a strong year-end rally.

After a successful retest of the correction bottom and reclaiming significant resistance levels we increased the model portfolio’s level of leverage.

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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The Meta Strategy ETF Portfolio Newsletter – 11 2020

The stock market rallied higher in the face of what many thought would be the worst possible US election outcome: no clear winner on election night combined with a high likelihood of split power between Senate & House. Instead of trying to conjure up an explanation of how the worst result is suddenly great in hindsight, I think that the real reason behind the unexpected rise are mechanical liquidity flows into stocks.

The S&P 500 is still stuck in a volatile correction, but the enthusiastic reaction after the election bodes well for a historically positive season – especially if we see clear, positive news on the vaccine front.

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Probability Map November 2nd

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

In today’s report: last week’s stock market rout analyzed through the lens of volatility, breadth, seasonality and more.

After breaking significant resistance levels we reduced the model portfolio’s level of leverage to reasses the situation.

US elections are front and center this week. Forecasts paint a clear picture in favor for Joe Biden, but the senate result will likely be more important for the stock market.

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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Probability Map October 26th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

In today’s report: a textbook technical setup coming out of the current correction in equities is supported by positive seasonality.

After closing and consolidating above the last significant resistance below the S&P 500 all-time-high, the model portfolio is now long near its maximum level of leverage.

We began to build high conviction long positions over the past month and continue to hold during the current pullback that was preceded by significant breadth & strength.

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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Probability Map October 19th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Today’s report sees increased short-term uncertainty after Friday’s Opex at the tail end of the current correction in equities.

After closing above the last significant resistance below the S&P 500 all-time-high early last week, the model portfolio is now long near its maximum level of leverage.

We began to build high conviction long positions over the past three weeks and continue to hold during a short-term pullback preceded by significant breadth & strength.

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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Probability Map October 12th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Today’s report calls the end of the current correction in equities.
After closing above the last significant resistance below the S&P 500 all-time-high, the portfolio is now going long at its maximum level of leverage.

We began to build high conviction long positions over the past three weeks and one further entry is planned on a short-term pullback under significant breadth & strength.

We book a large gain as we close our position in long Corn.

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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The Meta Strategy ETF Portfolio Newsletter – 10 2020

Just as the stock market is settling into behavior that looks more and more like a regular post-bear-market recovery period, the US presidential election is imminent and priced into volatility markets as a potential high risk event.

As a bull market environment is signaled by the systematic Meta Strategy, the baseline expectation for this correction is to stick to regular parameters and lead to new all-time-highs in due course.

Looking at the big picture my conclusion is: an exogenous shock bear market has ended in record time and we now see the fundamental picture slowly turn positive. We can wait for signs of a new regime change from the Meta Strategy model rather than try to predict highly uncertain medium- & long-term developments.

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Probability Map October 5th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Today’s report sees increased probabilities for an end of the current equity correction.
Stock market resilience in light of the exogenous shock event of President Trump’s Coronavirus infection is a very healthy sign.

We began to build high conviction long positions over the past two weeks and further entries are planned on continuing strength – leading to a leveraged long exposure for the portfolio.

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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Probability Map September 28th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Today’s report sees further increased probabilities in favor of an end of the current equity pullback.

We reached our main target range last week and began to add long positions. Further long entries are planned for this week – leading to a leveraged long exposure for the portfolio.

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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Probability Map September 21st

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Today’s report sees higher chances for an end of the current equity pullback. The market direction after Friday’s option expiration may be decisive.

Important levels have been reached and we now fine-tune our entry on the long side.

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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Probability Map September 14th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Today’s report looks closely at the current equity pullback which brings stocks back into play in a big way.

Important levels have been reached and we now fine-tune our entry on the long side.

Short volatility exposure is back on the table with an unusual opportunity in the VIX futures curve going into the US election.

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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Probability Map September 7th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Today’s report looks closely at the current equity pullback which brings stocks back into play in a big way.

The anticipated drop leads to gains on the short side and activates a new trading setup.
Short volatility exposure is back on the table after a long pause with an opportunity in the unusual VIX futures curve going into the US election.

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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Probability Map August 31st

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Today’s report sees unusual anomalies regarding equity volatility leading to rising risks over the short-term while good long-term prospects remain.

We book a large gain in long Corn.
The best opportunities can be found in alternative assets and securities for the moment.

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

Probability Map August 24th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Today’s report sees strong possibilities for a change in market dynamic due to the roll off in gamma exposure. A common theme over the last weeks, studies show elevated risk over the short-term and good long-term prospects.
The best opportunities can be found in alternative assets and securities for the moment

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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Probability Map August 17th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Today’s report sees an overextended stock market still hovering just below its all-time-highs – with elevated risk over the short-term and good long-term prospects.
The best opportunities can be found in alternative assets and securities for the moment

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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Probability Map August 10th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Today’s report shows a continuing return to normality by establishing a long-term position in stocks, but still sees elevated risk over the short-term.

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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The Meta Strategy ETF Portfolio Newsletter – 08 2020

Dear subscriber,
the Meta Strategy indicators signaled the change to a bull market regime while the world is in turmoil all around us. This is quite normal due to the anticipatory nature of the stock market and fundamental economic improvement is lagging behind.

Our gold position had one of its best months in history (up 13,54%) – far surpassing the gains of the S&P 500…

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Probability Map August 3rd

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
Today’s report shows that the short term outlook has turned negative while we are caught in an uneventful “Summer Box”.
As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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Probability Map July 27th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
Today’s report confirms a decisive turning point in the market and shows entries in a bull market trade setup.
As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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Thoughts on the Market Environment, July 2020

My tactical asset allocation model, the Meta Strategy, signaled big changes in the stock market environment in recent weeks.
This is a big deal, because the current regime of the market influences all my investing and trading decisions.
We are now in a „make money regime“ opposed to the previous „preserve capital” environment.

Probability Map July 20th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
Today’s report confirms a decisive turning point in the market and details specific bull market trade setups.
As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

Download The Meta Strategy eBook

The brand-new, free eBook „The Meta Strategy“.
All you need to know about my flagship systematic Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy – background, backtests and detailed analysis.
Click on the title to download for free!

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Probability Map July 13th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
Today’s report identifies a decisive turning point in the market and introduces a new section detailing asymmetric trading opportunities.
As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.

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Probability Map July 6th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
This report maps my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term. My key insights, price targets and model portfolios are all listed below the probability map.

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The Meta Strategy ETF Portfolio Newsletter – 07 2020

Dear subscriber,
Uncertainty still reigns. The Meta Strategy is very close to flipping to a bull market regime and buy back into equities while the gulf between the economy and the stock market is as high at as it has ever been.
Our gold position had a stellar month far surpassing the gains of the S&P 500…

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Probability Map June 29th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
This report maps my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term. My key insights, price targets and model portfolios are all listed below the probability map.

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Probability Map June 22nd

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
This report maps my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term. My key insights, price targets and model portfolios are all listed below the probability map.

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Thoughts on the Market Environment, June 2020

We are dealing with an extraordinary situation – both in our lives and in the financial markets – and find ourselves in a state of limbo.
Will we really manage a return to new stock market highs in the face of an abysmal economy, a raging pandemic, riots and so on? Or will the March bear market return with full force and surprise complacent investors?

Probability Map June 15th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
This report maps my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term. My key insights, price targets and model portfolios are all listed below the probability map.

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Probability Map June 8th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
This report maps my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term. My key insights, price targets and model portfolios are all listed below the probability map.

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The Meta Strategy ETF Portfolio Newsletter – 06 2020

Dear subscriber,
we are dealing with an extraordinary situation – both in our lives and in the financial markets.
Will we really manage a return to new stock market highs in the face of an abysmal economy, a raging pandemic, riots and so on? Or will the March bear market return with full force and surprise complacent investors?

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Download the Investment Blueprint eBook

A complete guide to develop your own individually tailored investment plan.
Newly revised and updated.
Read about investing going from basic concepts to sophisticated strategies and insightful ideas.
Click on the title to download for free!

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Probability Map June 1st

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
This report maps my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term. My key insights, price targets and model portfolios are all listed below the probability map.

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Probability Map May 25th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update This table maps my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short term (1 – 8 weeks), medium term (3 – 6 months) and long term (6 – 18 months). It is updated each Monday and whenever probability estimates…

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Short Term Strategy Rules

A rulebook for basic and premium subscribers detailing the short term trading set-ups that I include in my trading process.
Strategies: Buy the Gamma Dip; Retest of Low (after retracement in sharp bull market pullback) and more…

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Probability Map May 18th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update This table maps my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short term (1 – 8 weeks), medium term (3 – 6 months) and long term (6 – 18 months). It is updated each Monday and whenever probability estimates…

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Thoughts on the Market Environment, May 2020

A succinct summary of key insights from recent subscription newsletters. Thoughts on the market environment From a relentless march to new highs to an unprecedented crash and now a generational rally – during the first four months of the year the stock market certainly showed us everything it has got. In the face of high uncertainty, […]

Probability Map May 11th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update This table maps my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short term (1 – 8 weeks), medium term (3 – 6 months) and long term (6 – 18 months). It is updated each Monday and whenever probability estimates…

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The Meta Strategy ETF Portfolio Newsletter – 05 2020

The Meta Strategy ETF Portfoliomonthly issue #17, May 2020 Dear Subscriber, the systematic individual investor website has been revamped with lots of new content and a new weekly newsletter „The Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio“ aimed at active traders.  Please contact me directly, if you want to upgrade from your existing membership to the weekly newsletter, so I can offer you…

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Probability Map May 4th

Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update This table maps my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short term (1 – 8 weeks), medium term (3 – 6 months) and long term (6 – 18 months). It is updated each Monday and whenever probability estimates…

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Volatility Strategy Implementation & Rules

Here is how I implement Short Volatility Strategies in my portfolio in practice: UVXY Put Strategy: Using put options on a long volatility instrument, that constantly loses value, limits risk to the amount of premium paid, but consequently lowers the return: the put premium can be seen as a re-insurance paid to protect against catastrophic events unforeseen by…

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Does the drop in volatility speak for a coming euphoric stock market phase?

Volatility is an interesting measurement to judge the health of equity markets. As a mean-reverting price series it always returns to its average over time – it doesn’t increase indefinitely nor can it stay low forever. But it also has a tendency to cluster: high volatility is usually followed by more high volatility and low volatility […]

The Meta Strategy Rules – Indicators and ETF Portfolios

The Meta Strategy ETF Model Portfolios are built in a step-by step process, that is completely rules based. There is never any guessing exactly what to do when. All the different building blocks are interconnected and form a nuanced picture of the state and trajectory of current market conditions. Each single indicator can be adjusted…

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Trading Parabolic Moves (…after the fact)

There is nothing like a story of extraordinary gains to play havoc with investor psychology. Especially when it is founded on asset price moves of a magnitude that could mean life changing levels of profit – if you had only participated in it. Such parabolic irrational exuberances, that drive prices and valuations to unsustainable extremes, happen […]

Trend Following for Individual Investors – A Manageable Futures Strategy

A traditional long-only portfolio consisting of globally diversified asset classes can be greatly enhanced by a truly diversifying strategy, namely trend-following managed futures. We have over 40 years of real return data *,*** available from different CTAs running such strategies – there is even research testing the validity of the concept going back 800 years in […]

Volatility Strategies in Detail

Let´s dig deeper into the practical details of the volatility strategies I use in my portfolio. These are among the most active, short-term strategies I use at the moment. They also use concepts that are further off the beaten track than most mainstream investment strategies, which makes them more valuable, but also more difficult to […]