Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.
— Updated May 25, pre-market —
The S&P 500 hovers indecisively around a key short-term inflection area.
With the monthly OpEx price pin behind us, the way is now open for a larger directional move.
Recent extremes in breadth, sentiment, and positioning, which had caused several warning signals to flash red, have now normalized.
While these indicators have plenty of room to swing further into the opposite direction, they are not an outright obstacle to rising prices anymore.
As usual, I map my current data-driven estimates of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short, medium, and long term.