Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

Today’s report looks at how positive vaccine news may enable the market to look beyond the current catastrophic state of the pandemic – pricing in the likely state of the world six months from now.

A strong rally is slowly increasing short-term chances for a pullback. We decrease the model portfolio’s level of leverage with rising prices, taking excellent profits along the way.

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.