Meta Strategy Derivatives Portfolio – Probability Map Update.

In today’s report: a textbook technical setup coming out of the current correction in equities is supported by positive seasonality.

After closing and consolidating above the last significant resistance below the S&P 500 all-time-high, the model portfolio is now long near its maximum level of leverage.

We began to build high conviction long positions over the past month and continue to hold during the current pullback that was preceded by significant breadth & strength.

As usual I map my current data-driven estimate of the probabilities for future returns of the S&P 500 over the short-, medium- and long-term.